by Thérèse Boudreaux
With absentee voting having already started, Michigan and Wisconsin voters are leaning Republican, an Atlas Intel poll released recently finds.
Former president Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in the Midwest swing states among likely voters, both in head-to-head matchups and multi-candidate ballots.
In Michigan, respondents chose Trump by 50.6% and Harris by 47.2% when only given the two, and Trump received roughly the same support, with Harris pulling slightly less, when the two appeared with third party candidates.
The Michigan sample of 918 respondents consisted of 28.9% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 38.1% Independents.
Defying previous trends, women voters, who made up 51.7% of the poll, favored Trump by 54%, compared to 45% who chose Harris. Male voters, who made up 46.9% of respondents, supported Harris by 49.5% and Trump by only 46%.
Respondents from suburban and rural communities tended to go for Trump, whereas urban residents largely favor Harris.
By generation, Michigan voters ages 18 to 29 are at an even split between the two candidates, while 30 to 44-year-olds favor Trump at 54.4% and Harris at only 39.5%. Roughly 50% of respondents ages 45 to 64 chose Harris, compared to 46% for Trump. But Trump leads Harris by eight percentage points–54% to 46%–among Michigan voters ages 65 and older.
Wisconsin presents a slightly different picture, with the gap between the two candidates narrowing to well within the margin of error.
In a head-to-head race, Trump captures 49.7% of the Wisconsin vote versus 48.6% who support Harris. In a multi-way ballot, the results barely change, with Trump getting 49.6% and Harris 48.2% of the vote.
The Wisconsin sample of 1,077 respondents consisted of 36% Democrats, 34.3% Republicans, and 29.7% Independents.
Unlike in Michigan, Wisconsin men – who made up 44.8% of respondents – favor Trump by 54%, whereas only 45.5% of women–who made up 54.5% of respondents–favor Trump.
Broken down by age, younger Wisconsin voters are enthused about Trump, with respondents ages 18 to 29 favoring him over Harris by ten percentage points, 54% to 45%, respectively. By contrast, the next oldest cohort of voters ages 30 to 45 largely favor Harris, 54% to only 40.7% who favor Trump.
Respondents ages 45 through 64 chose Trump by 52.4% over Harris at 45.7%, and voters ages 65+ are split almost dead even between the candidates, but chose Trump by a small margin.
The poll was conducted Sept. 20 to 25, with a +/-3 margin of error for both surveys.
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Thérèse Boudreaux is an apprentice reporter covering Michigan and Wisconsin for The Center Square, under the mentorship of Midwest Regional Editor J.D. Davidson. Her work focuses on election-related news in these two states. Previously, she interned at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Thérèse graduated with a major in politics from Hillsdale College in May of 2024, where she produced award-winning radio journalism.
Photo “Kamala Harris” by Kamala Harris.
